True Odds

True odds are the 'fair' odds on an outcome — the price that reflects its actual probability with no bookmaker margin attached. They are the benchmark against which every quoted price is judged, because a sportsbook always shades its odds below fair value to build in the vig. The art of profitable betting is estimating the true odds yourself and then backing only those selections where the bookmaker's price is longer than the truth. Worked example: a coin flip has a genuine 50% chance on each side, so the true odds are 2.00 (even money) per side. A bookmaker will not offer 2.00/2.00, because that returns no margin; instead it posts around 1.91/1.91 (each side at -110 in American terms). Converting 1.91 back to an implied probability gives 1/1.91 ≈ 52.4%, and the two sides sum to about 104.8% — that extra 4.8% over 100% is the embedded margin. The bettor is being asked to accept 1.91 for something genuinely worth 2.00. Why it matters: a bet has positive expected value only when the offered odds exceed the true odds. If you estimate a team's real chance at 50% (true odds 2.00) and find a book pricing it at 2.10, you have value; at 1.80 you do not, however likely the team is to win. True odds can be estimated from statistical models, power ratings, or by 'removing the vig' from an existing market to recover the implied fair line. The common mistake is treating the bookmaker's price as the truth rather than as a margin-loaded version of it. Compare with implied probability, the vig and value betting.