Ücretsiz araç
Kelly kriteri hesaplayıcısı
Avantajınıza göre kasanızın bir oranı olarak en uygun stake'i hesaplayın.
Kelly kriteri, uzun vadede kasa büyümesini en üst düzeye çıkaran stake'i, kasanızın bir oranı olarak hesaplar. Oranlarınızı ve gerçek kazanma olasılığı tahmininizi kullanır. Tam Kelly oynak olabileceğinden, birçok bahisçi dalgalanmaları azaltmak için yarım Kelly kullanır.
Bahsiniz
Önerilen stake
- Kelly oranı
- 10.00%
- Tam Kelly stake
- 100.00
- Yarım Kelly stake
- 50.00
Nasıl çalışır
The Kelly criterion calculates the optimal fraction of your bankroll to stake on a bet, given the odds and your own estimate of the probability of winning. From your bankroll, the decimal odds and your estimated win probability, it returns the Kelly fraction, the recommended stake, and a more conservative half-Kelly stake. The formula is f = (b·p − q) / b, where b is the decimal odds minus one, p is your estimated probability of winning, and q is 1 − p. The result, f, is the proportion of your bankroll to wager. If f is zero or negative, you have no mathematical edge and the calculator advises against betting. Kelly is designed to maximise the long-term growth of your bankroll while protecting it from ruin. By sizing each stake in proportion to your perceived edge, it bets more when value is greater and less when it is slim, which is why many professional bettors use it, almost always at a reduced fraction, as a disciplined staking framework.
Örnek hesaplama
Suppose your bankroll is £1,000, the decimal odds are 2.00, and you estimate your probability of winning at 0.55. b = odds - 1 = 2.00 - 1 = 1 p = 0.55 q = 1 - p = 0.45 f = (b·p - q) / b = (1 x 0.55 - 0.45) / 1 = (0.55 - 0.45) / 1 = 0.10 Full Kelly stake = 10% of £1,000 = £100 Half-Kelly stake = 5% of £1,000 = £50 The positive fraction confirms an edge, so full Kelly suggests staking £100, while the safer half-Kelly suggests £50.
Kelly assumes your win probability is accurate; overestimating your edge causes the formula to overbet and can rapidly erode a bankroll. Most experienced bettors stake a fraction such as half or quarter Kelly to reduce volatility and protect against estimation error.
Sıkça sorulan sorular
What is the difference between full and half Kelly?
Full Kelly stakes the exact fraction the formula recommends and maximises theoretical growth, but it is highly volatile. Half Kelly stakes half that amount, sacrificing a little long-term growth for a much smoother ride and greater protection against overestimating your edge.
What does a negative Kelly fraction mean?
A fraction of zero or below means the odds do not compensate for your estimated probability, so you have no edge. In that case the correct stake is nothing and the bet should be avoided.
Why do most bettors use a fraction of Kelly?
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal only if your probability estimate is exactly right, which is rarely the case. Betting a fraction such as half or quarter Kelly cushions the impact of estimation errors and significantly reduces bankroll swings.
Does Kelly guarantee I will make money?
No. Kelly only optimises stake sizing when you genuinely have an edge and your probabilities are accurate; it cannot turn a losing system into a winning one. If your estimates are wrong, even careful Kelly staking will lose money over time.
Diğer hesaplayıcılar
Avantajını değerlendir
Değer mi buldun? En iyi oranla oyna.
Analistlerimiz lisanslı bahis sitelerini oran, ödeme ve çekim hızına göre değerlendirip karşılaştırır — az önce hesapladığın avantajı doğrudan bahisçiye geri vermeyesin diye.