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Calculadora del criterio de Kelly
Calcula el stake óptimo como fracción de tu bankroll según tu ventaja.
El criterio de Kelly calcula el stake que maximiza el crecimiento del bankroll a largo plazo, expresado como una fracción de tu bankroll. Usa tus cuotas y tu estimación de la probabilidad real de ganar. Como el Kelly completo puede ser volátil, muchos apostantes usan medio Kelly para reducir las oscilaciones.
Tu apuesta
Stake recomendado
- Fracción de Kelly
- 10.00%
- Stake Kelly completo
- 100.00
- Stake medio Kelly
- 50.00
Cómo funciona
The Kelly criterion calculates the optimal fraction of your bankroll to stake on a bet, given the odds and your own estimate of the probability of winning. From your bankroll, the decimal odds and your estimated win probability, it returns the Kelly fraction, the recommended stake, and a more conservative half-Kelly stake. The formula is f = (b·p − q) / b, where b is the decimal odds minus one, p is your estimated probability of winning, and q is 1 − p. The result, f, is the proportion of your bankroll to wager. If f is zero or negative, you have no mathematical edge and the calculator advises against betting. Kelly is designed to maximise the long-term growth of your bankroll while protecting it from ruin. By sizing each stake in proportion to your perceived edge, it bets more when value is greater and less when it is slim, which is why many professional bettors use it, almost always at a reduced fraction, as a disciplined staking framework.
Ejemplo práctico
Suppose your bankroll is £1,000, the decimal odds are 2.00, and you estimate your probability of winning at 0.55. b = odds - 1 = 2.00 - 1 = 1 p = 0.55 q = 1 - p = 0.45 f = (b·p - q) / b = (1 x 0.55 - 0.45) / 1 = (0.55 - 0.45) / 1 = 0.10 Full Kelly stake = 10% of £1,000 = £100 Half-Kelly stake = 5% of £1,000 = £50 The positive fraction confirms an edge, so full Kelly suggests staking £100, while the safer half-Kelly suggests £50.
Kelly assumes your win probability is accurate; overestimating your edge causes the formula to overbet and can rapidly erode a bankroll. Most experienced bettors stake a fraction such as half or quarter Kelly to reduce volatility and protect against estimation error.
Preguntas frecuentes
What is the difference between full and half Kelly?
Full Kelly stakes the exact fraction the formula recommends and maximises theoretical growth, but it is highly volatile. Half Kelly stakes half that amount, sacrificing a little long-term growth for a much smoother ride and greater protection against overestimating your edge.
What does a negative Kelly fraction mean?
A fraction of zero or below means the odds do not compensate for your estimated probability, so you have no edge. In that case the correct stake is nothing and the bet should be avoided.
Why do most bettors use a fraction of Kelly?
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal only if your probability estimate is exactly right, which is rarely the case. Betting a fraction such as half or quarter Kelly cushions the impact of estimation errors and significantly reduces bankroll swings.
Does Kelly guarantee I will make money?
No. Kelly only optimises stake sizing when you genuinely have an edge and your probabilities are accurate; it cannot turn a losing system into a winning one. If your estimates are wrong, even careful Kelly staking will lose money over time.
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