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Calculadora de Closing Line Value
Compare a odd que pegou com o preço de fechamento — superar o fechamento é o melhor sinal de vantagem.
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures how the price you took compares to the closing price — the final odds just before the market closes. If you consistently take odds longer than the close, you are beating the market and almost certainly betting with an edge. Enter the odds you got and the closing odds to see your CLV.
Sua odd vs o fechamento
Valor da linha de fechamento
- CLV (melhoria de preço)
- +5.00%
- Probabilidade implícita — sua odd
- 47.62%
- Probabilidade implícita — fechamento
- 50.00%
Você superou a linha de fechamento — forte sinal de vantagem a longo prazo.
Como funciona
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures how the odds you took compare with the final, or closing, odds offered just before an event begins. You enter the decimal price you backed and the closing decimal price, and the calculator returns your CLV percentage, the implied probability of each price, and a verdict on whether you beat the close. The closing line is widely regarded as the sharpest, most efficient price the market produces, because it reflects all available information and the weight of money up to kick-off. Consistently taking odds longer than the close means you are repeatedly finding value before the market corrects, which is the single strongest statistical predictor of long-term betting skill. CLV separates the quality of your decisions from short-term luck. An individual bet can lose even when you beat the close, and win even when you did not, but a positive CLV maintained across a large sample shows your process is sound regardless of how the results happen to fall.
Exemplo prático
Say you back a team at decimal odds of 2.10. By kick-off the price has shortened to a closing line of 1.90. Implied probability of your price: 1 / 2.10 = 47.62% Implied probability of the close: 1 / 1.90 = 52.63% CLV = (2.10 / 1.90) - 1 = 1.1053 - 1 = +10.53% Because 2.10 is longer than the closing 1.90, you beat the close by 10.53%. The market ultimately rated the outcome more likely (52.63%) than the price you secured implied (47.62%), so you captured value the market later removed.
A single bet that beats the close is noise, not proof of an edge; CLV only becomes meaningful judged over hundreds of bets. Always compare like for like by using the same market and a true closing price, ideally from a sharp, low-margin book.
Perguntas frequentes
Why does beating the closing line matter?
The closing line is the market's most accurate estimate of an outcome's probability, so regularly securing longer odds than the close indicates you are finding genuine value. Over a large sample, positive CLV correlates more reliably with long-term profit than your win rate or short-term returns.
Can I beat the close and still lose the bet?
Yes. CLV measures the quality of the price you took, not the result of any single wager. Individual outcomes are variable, but consistently positive CLV signals a profitable process even through losing runs.
What is a good CLV percentage?
Even a small positive average, such as 1% to 3% sustained across many bets, is considered strong and difficult to achieve against sharp markets. The consistency and size of your sample matter far more than any single large figure.
Which closing odds should I use?
Use the final price on the same market and selection from a sharp, low-margin bookmaker or exchange, recorded as close to the off as possible. Comparing against a soft or high-margin book will overstate your CLV and give a misleading picture.
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