Moneyline

The moneyline, abbreviated ML, is the simplest form of sports betting: you pick the outright winner of a game, with no point spread applied. The price reflects each side's likelihood of winning. In American odds a negative number denotes the favourite and shows how much you must risk to win 100, while a positive number denotes the underdog and shows how much a 100 stake returns in profit. Worked example: a baseball game lists the favourite at -150 and the underdog at +130. To win 100 on the favourite you risk 150; a winning 100 stake on the underdog returns 130 in profit. Converting to decimal, -150 equals 1.67 (100 / 150 + 1) and +130 equals 2.30 (130 / 100 + 1). A 100 bet on the favourite at 1.67 returns 167 in total, of which 67 is profit. Note that the two prices together imply more than 100% probability; the surplus is the bookmaker's margin, or juice. Why it matters: moneyline betting is especially prevalent in low-scoring sports such as baseball and ice hockey, where the run line or puck line plays a smaller role than the point spread does in football and basketball. The common mistake is to back heavy favourites at short prices without considering value: laying -300 to win 100 demands a high strike rate just to break even, and a single upset wipes out the profit from several wins. Always weigh the price against the true probability. See also american odds, implied probability and run line.