Bubble

The bubble is the point in a poker tournament just before the paid places begin, where the next player eliminated finishes empty-handed while everyone still seated is guaranteed a payout. Being "on the bubble" means one more knockout stands between the remaining field and the money, and the player who busts at that moment is said to have "bubbled." This phase warps normal strategy. Because survival suddenly carries real financial value, short and medium stacks tighten up dramatically to avoid being the unlucky elimination, while big stacks exploit that caution by raising relentlessly and applying maximum pressure. The dynamic is governed by the Independent Chip Model, which shows that chips are worth less as your stack grows, so risking your tournament life near the bubble is far more costly than the raw chip count suggests. Worked example: a tournament draws 180 entrants at a $100 buy-in, and the top 18 finishers (10 percent) are paid. With 19 players left, the field is on the bubble. Blinds are 2,000/4,000 and you sit second-in-chips. The chip leader open-shoves into your big blind while you hold pocket sevens. Even though you are roughly a coin flip or better, folding is often correct: busting the shorter stacks first locks in your min-cash, and calling risks turning a guaranteed profit into a $100 loss. Once the 19th player busts, the bubble bursts and the remaining 18 are in the money. Note that in "hand-for-hand" play, all tables act simultaneously near the bubble to prevent stalling. Compare with the buy-in, bankroll, ICM and the min-cash concepts around tournament survival.